Rate Expectations
Market rate context without fabricated meeting probabilities
These are observed Treasury yields and inflation breakevens—not Fed hike/cut odds or a forecast of the policy path.
Series in this section
Choose a series to chart it. Each value belongs to the observation date shown.
| Series | Latest | As of | vs prior obs. | 1-month change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasurydaily · DGS2 | 4.51% | Nov 6, 2026 | +5 bp | −26 bp | |
| 3-Month Treasurydaily · DGS3MO | 4.19% | Nov 6, 2026 | +2 bp | −3 bp | |
| 5-Year Inflation Breakevendaily · T5YIE | 2.25% | Nov 9, 2026 | −4 bp | −9 bp | |
| 10-Year Inflation Breakevendaily · T10YIE | 2.22% | Nov 9, 2026 | −1 bp | −11 bp |
2-Year Treasury
2-Year Treasury 3-Month Treasury
Observed values, not projections. Each line uses its own observation dates. Both series share the same units.
Observation log · 2-Year Treasury
451 published observations with a change
| Date | Value | Change vs prior obs. |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | 4.51% | +5 bp |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 4.46% | −12 bp |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 4.58% | −3 bp |
| Nov 3, 2026 | 4.61% | +2 bp |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 4.59% | +3 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 4.56% | −5 bp |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 4.61% | −6 bp |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 4.67% | −3 bp |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 4.70% | +2 bp |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 4.68% | −1 bp |
How to read this section
No validated Fed-meeting futures probability or target-rate path is currently published. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens are context, not FOMC probabilities.
Dates, cadences, values and changes are displayed as published. One-month changes require a comparable historical observation; missing observations are not filled in.